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| #538139 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 28.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012 A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -70C...HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2338 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS NEAR 40 KT OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 40 KT...AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KIRK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD BUT IS STILL BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF KIRK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 280/10. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING LARGE- SCALE TROUGH. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AND...AS A RESULT...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST WITH RECURVATURE OCCURRING AROUND 50W. THE NEW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONSIDERS THE GFS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 23.9N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 25.0N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 26.0N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 29.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 34.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 42.3N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI |
