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| #538216 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 29.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...KIRK IS STILL PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE KIRK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY COOL WATERS AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A PROGRESSIVELY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS KIRK MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT IT STILL LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 24.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 24.7N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 25.3N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 26.4N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 28.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 32.5N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 46.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
