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| #538497 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 29.Aug.2012) TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT FROM ISAAC TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 91.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF BATON ROUGE ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER OR NEAR THE COAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ISAAC MOVES INLAND. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN MANDEVILLE LOUISIANA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- EVEN THOUGH ISAAC IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...LIFE-THREATENING HAZARDS FROM STORM SURGE AND INLAND FLOODING ARE STILL OCCURRING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... * MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...5 TO 10 FT * SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...2 TO 4 FT * ALABAMA...2 TO 4 FT * FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 6 FEET IS STILL OCCURRING AT WAVELAND MISSISSIPPI AND A SURGE OF 6 FEET HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT NEW CANAL STATION ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
