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| #538575 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 30.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN HINTS OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGHER OF THE TWO NUMBERS GIVEN THE MICROWAVE PRESENTATION. KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FROM 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AT WHICH POINT KIRK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. KIRK IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS THEREFORE PRONE TO QUICKER STRENGTHENING THAN A LARGE CYCLONE. BECAUSE OF THAT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN KIRK WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND/OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ON TO A NON-FRONTAL LOW LONGER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...MAKING KIRK EXTRATROPICAL IN 96 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. KIRK IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO FEEL THE PRESENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND TV15. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 26.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 27.5N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 29.3N 50.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 31.5N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 34.2N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 40.5N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 47.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
