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| #53862 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 24.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005 WILMA'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 60 NMI DOWN TO 40 NMI. THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -75 TO -80C NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT 24/2001Z... AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 136-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME... BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS ABOUT 109 KT SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION... DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77KT. ADDING THE FORWARD SPEED OF WILMA TO THE T-NUMBERS SUPPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/41. WILMA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG DIGGING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AFTER WHICH A STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL. WILMA HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO OVER 26C AND WARMER SSTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 71 KT BY 24 HOURS... THE RAPID MOTION AND LARGE SIZE OF THE WILMA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD OFFSET THESE OTHERWISE VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS... AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UNTIL MUCH COOLER WATER IS REACHED BY OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL LIKELY LOSE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY 36 HOURS... THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL NOT SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY... WHICH MEANS THAT WILMA SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM AT 48-120 HR OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.6N 74.3W 110 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 36.1N 68.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 41.2N 61.3W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/0000Z 46.1N 51.2W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/0000Z 47.0N 44.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/0000Z 47.5N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
