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| #538695 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 30.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012 KIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60 KT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF THE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS. KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS OF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE KIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL IV15. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 27.2N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 28.4N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 30.4N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 32.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 42.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 49.2N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
