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| #538797 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 30.Aug.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 340/11 KT. ISAAC WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI. BY DAY 3...THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA. ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISAAC ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER... UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 32.7N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0600Z 34.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1800Z 36.0N 93.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0600Z 37.7N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 38.6N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z 39.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/1800Z 38.5N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
