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| #538806 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 30.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012 KIRK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THAT THE CDO FEATURE HAS EXPANDED AND TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK... WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS. KIRK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY DRY AIR ISSUES...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY COMPACT CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF NEARBY DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 36-48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS LESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 28.2N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 29.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 31.8N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 34.4N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 44.5N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 25.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
