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| #538893 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 30.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012 KIRK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED OF COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF...THE EYE HAS WARMED FURTHER AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSER TO T5.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 85 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA SOURCES. KIRK HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TRAVERSING WARM WATERS IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW SINK TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A JET TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE... SUGGESTS A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE POINT OF RECURVATURE. A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER RAPIDLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY OR EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. A QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERTAKE KIRK IN 2-3 DAYS...RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AROUND 72 HOURS AND ABSORPTION IN 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY AIDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS VEERED A HAIR TO THE RIGHT AND IS 335/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLEAR-CUT. KIRK HAS REACHED THE WESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO RECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP SPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 29.0N 50.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 30.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 33.0N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 38.7N 44.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 46.2N 34.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
