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| #538967 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 KIRK IS A SMALL-SIZE HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 5.0 AT 0600 UTC ON THE DVORAK SCALE GIVING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED. THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE HIGHER T-NUMBERS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...KIRK ONLY HAS A 24-HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT REACHES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR EARLIER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...AND SOON IT SHOULD RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. KIRK SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STEERING FLOW AROUND KIRK IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 30.1N 50.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 31.7N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 34.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 41.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 50.5N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
