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| #539038 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 A 1202 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT THE SMALL EYE OF KIRK IS STILL THERE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KIRK COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BUT ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND KEEPS KIRK AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS AID AND THE LGEM. KIRK SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A BIT SOONER. KIRK IS NOW MOVING A TAD EAST OF NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 005/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 31.2N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 33.1N 50.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 35.7N 47.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 38.9N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 43.0N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 53.0N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
