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| #53904 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 AM 25.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS. THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD WILMA COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 34.8N 70.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 38.9N 64.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 57.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 51.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 28/0600Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 29/0600Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/0600Z 55.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
