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| #539116 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 KIRK HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED LOOKING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON KIRK FROM A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT KIRK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. AFTER THAT TIME THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE FASTER BEFORE KIRK IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST TIMES...BUT THAT IS NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY HERE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11...AS KIRK IS NOW ROUNDING THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING KIRK RECURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 32.2N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 34.3N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 37.3N 46.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 41.2N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 46.0N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
