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| #539179 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 31.Aug.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012 THE APPEARANCE OF KIRK ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGES...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT HURRICANE IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL STILL INTACT. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS IS THE BASIS FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. KIRK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR BY DAY 2...WHEN KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 20C AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW KIRK BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OR DISSIPATING WITHIN A FEW DAYS. KIRK IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE...015/14...AS IT IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL KIRK DISSIPATES OR BECOMES ABSORBED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 33.9N 49.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 36.1N 47.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 39.4N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 43.7N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 48.1N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
