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| #539248 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 01.Sep.2012) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012 MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF KIRK WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. KIRK WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY. MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 HOURS OR LESS BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AMPLIFIES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 35.3N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 37.7N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 41.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 46.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
