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| #539310 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 01.Sep.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIRK IS BECOMING ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CLODEST CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBER FROM SAB. INCREASING SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS ALONG THE TRACK IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/22...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. THE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1238 UTC ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 37.4N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 40.0N 43.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 44.3N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 49.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
