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| #539381 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 01.Sep.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIRK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO ELONGATE NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER FROM TAFB. AS KIRK MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. KIRK SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/25...AS KIRK CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER BY 24 HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 39.5N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 42.4N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 47.6N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
