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| #539454 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 01.Sep.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW ONLY CONSISTS OF A FEW PATCHES. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 50 KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 20C AND INTO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT. THE SMALL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED SUNDAY NIGHT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT AS IT IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL KIRK IS ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 41.2N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 44.5N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/0000Z 50.0N 30.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
