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| #539485 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:45 PM 02.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING LESLIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-4 DAYS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HOURS AND REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE STRUCTURE OF LESLIE WILL EVOLVE IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HISTORICALLY THE BEST PERFORMING INTENSITY MODEL. AFTER HESITATING THIS MORNING...LESLIE HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 9 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS THAN THERE WAS THIS MORNING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART...WITH THE GFS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ECMWF THE WESTERNMOST MODEL. GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE UPDATED TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED SPREAD...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.4N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 24.6N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 25.5N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 26.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 26.9N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 28.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 29.5N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
