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| #540060 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 04.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...HOWEVER...EXISTS ONLY ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB... SAB AND CIMSS ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND 2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER. MICHAEL IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. IF MICHAEL SURVIVES A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND ALLOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS. MICHAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO BYPASS MICHAEL...LEAVING THE STORM WITHIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MICHAEL MEANDERING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN SPEED...MOST OF THE MODELS MOVE MICHAEL ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TREND. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 27.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 28.5N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 29.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 29.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 30.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 31.5N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 44.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
