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| #540299 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 05.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSATE NEAR AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DURING THAT TIME...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY 48 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04...AS MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES BY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 28.1N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 28.6N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 30.7N 42.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 31.8N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 33.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 34.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
