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| #540466 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 05.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012 A RECENT 1818 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ COMPOSITE AND MUCH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT BASED ON THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME TODAY...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE WELL- DEVELOPED OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE BEGINS TO IMPEDE THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTFLOW OF MICHAEL. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AROUND 36-48 HOURS...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL SHOW MICHAEL RESPONDING TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH BY TURNING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 28.8N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 29.3N 42.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 30.0N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 30.6N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 31.0N 41.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 32.1N 42.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 33.2N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 34.8N 46.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
