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| #540542 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 05.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012 AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT... MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE LESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST TRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH AND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER. THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH A LARGE MODEL SPREAD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 29.3N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
