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| #540764 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 06.Sep.2012) TCMAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2012 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 41.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 41.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.1N 41.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N 42.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N 42.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 36.2N 45.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 40.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
