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| #540887 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 07.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 HURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EARLIER CDO FEATURE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND MOST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER IN SOME RAGGED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING LESLIE LATER THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE WINDS AND ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR ALONG WITH THE DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE INNER CORE AND COOLING SSTS DUE TO UPWELLING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS. SATELLITE FIXES AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A STEADIER NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. AFTER 48 HOURS...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS LESLIE INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING... ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED FASTER AND LEFT TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE END RESULT IS THAT THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. THE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION... WILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 26.7N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 26.9N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 27.6N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 33.7N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 38.5N 58.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 46.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
