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| #540954 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 07.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SMALL CHANGES WITH MICHAEL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT OBSCURED WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS...THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE DEEPER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90-100 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 90 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MICHAEL SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIGHT OR MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WHICH IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. A COMBINATION OF COLD WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD TO THE EAST OF MICHAEL IN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LONG RANGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF MICHAEL WITH LESLIE AS THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FOR NOW...THE NEW FORECAST WILL ASSUME THE CYCLONE WILL STAY MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM LESLIE AND ENDS UP ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS CORRECT...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TOO SLOW AND NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 31.2N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 31.5N 41.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 32.0N 41.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 32.7N 42.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 33.3N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 34.7N 44.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 39.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 48.5N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
