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| #541332 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 08.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012 MICHAEL CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LARGER THAN BEFORE...AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME SO THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 90 KT. MICHAEL WILL MOST LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROBABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE. IN ANY EVENT...THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE FASTER...335/5. MICHAEL SHOULD EXECUTE A HARD LEFT TURN BY TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE ALL MODELS SHOW THIS CHANGE IN TRACK...THERE ARE LARGE SPEED DISAGREEMENTS THAT MANIFEST THEMSELVES EVEN WITHIN 24H. THESE DIFFERENCES CAUSE MICHAEL TO EITHER COME CLOSE TO LESLIE...LIKE THE GFS...OR FOR A MUCH SLOWER MOTION LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS AS ONLY A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE STEERS THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT MUST BE CONSIDERED AN UNCERTAIN PREDICTION. DESPITE THE INITIAL DISAGREEMENTS...ALL MODELS EITHER SHOW MICHAEL AS EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5...OR ABSORPTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. I WILL STAY WITH CONTINUITY AND SHOW DISSIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 33.1N 42.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 33.6N 42.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 33.9N 43.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 44.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 34.5N 45.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 41.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 50.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
