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| #541500 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 09.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012 THE EYE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUND THE CENTER...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY BREAKS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...THEREFORE...THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT. MICHAEL STILL LIES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST OF MICHAEL. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOL WATERS BY THEN. THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD. MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MICHAEL BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE WEST AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 33.8N 42.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 33.9N 43.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 34.0N 44.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 34.6N 46.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 36.5N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 45.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
