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| #541945 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 10.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SHAPE EXISTS...SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST ORIENTATION...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST IN THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE -60C CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE CYCLONE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN INHIBITING COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING AND CAUSE MICHAEL TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD... MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE LIFE-SPAN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF... HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11. A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NAVY FNMOC SATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBPAGE PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN DETERMINING THE 6-HOUR MOTION. MICHAEL IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 35.3N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 37.7N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/1200Z 47.2N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0000Z 52.2N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS |
