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| #542010 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 11.Sep.2012) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012 MICHAEL IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN BY A T-NUMBER...AND MICHAEL IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 55 KT...WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C AND IN STRONG SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING FASTER...360/16. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MICHAEL...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL LOW...BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 37.1N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 40.2N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 45.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1800Z 50.9N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
