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| #542013 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 11.Sep.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012 LESLIE IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139 HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER AND DETERMING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BUOY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 KT WITH A GUST TO 60 KT AROUND 0600 UTC...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971.5 MB ABOUT AN HOUR LATER. THE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT LESLIE IS ALSO LOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT AND IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 50 TO 55 KT WINDS. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TODAY. THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND VERY SOON AND WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE COAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSTION. LESLIE SHOULD COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN JUST OVER 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SURFACE DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 45.7N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 51.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0600Z 57.5N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1800Z 61.5N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0600Z 63.5N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 61.5N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
