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| #542984 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 15.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012 ALTHOUGH NADINE IS STILL A TILTED HURRICANE...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT. NADINE IS QUICKLY RECURVING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 070/13 KT. THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES... AND NADINE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 3 WITH ANOTHER DEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER FORWARD SPEED WHILE NADINE IS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. THE FORECASTS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE NEW ONE LYING BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS SUCH THAT IT SHOULD TEMPER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS NADINE AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. COLDER WATER SHOULD ULTIMATELY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 30.9N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 31.0N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.9N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 31.7N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 34.0N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 36.5N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
