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| #54307 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 27.Oct.2005) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 2100Z THU OCT 27 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 81.4W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.1N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.6N 81.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 13.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.3N 82.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 83.5W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.5N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.0N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 81.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
