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| #543257 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 16.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012 MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER HAS A TILTED EYE. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/20 KT. NADINE IS ON TRACK AND...THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NADINE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...A SLOW TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE... INSTABILITY...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE LATTER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST ATLANTIC LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 30.8N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 32.6N 34.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 33.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 34.9N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 36.9N 31.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 37.5N 29.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR AZORES 120H 21/1800Z 37.5N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR AZORES $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
