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| #544394 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:20 AM 20.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012 NADINE CONTINUES TO HAVE A TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING APPARENT ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT WHICH IS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT AND AMSU ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE GFS SHOWS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DRAWING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES AS WELL AS FROM LATENT HEAT...AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EITHER AS A TROPICAL OR A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 120/9...IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND LEAVE NADINE IN A REGION OF WEAKER STEERING WINDS. THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCLEAR...AS THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME NOW...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GFS RUN LIES WELL WEST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODEL POSITIONS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. IN THESE SITUATIONS IT IS USUALLY BEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 36.2N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 35.4N 27.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/1200Z 32.3N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z 32.0N 25.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
