Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #544464 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 21.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012 NADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE...AND ITS FUTURE IS AS UNCERTAIN AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE CENTER IS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ONLY CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE I DO NOT HAVE ANY NEW DATA...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE VIGOROUS ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. NADINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APROACHING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS. NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NADINE WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BEGINS TO MEANDER AGAIN. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IS TO FORECAST IF NADINE WILL BE POST-TROPICAL...SUBTROPICAL...OR WILL ACQUIRE AGAIN MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NADINE WILL BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT ANY SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 35.1N 27.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 34.0N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 33.0N 25.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/1800Z 32.5N 24.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/0600Z 32.5N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 25/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0600Z 32.5N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
