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| #5448 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 17.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS SYMMETRICAL...THERE IS STILL AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY FIVE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SOON DANIELLE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ACCELERATES DANIELLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL KEEP THE HURRICANE NEARLY STATIONARY BY DAY 3 AND 4. I MIGHT REGRET IT FOR NOT FOLLOWING THE GFS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ACCELERATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 24.0N 40.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 26.0N 40.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 30.0N 40.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 32.0N 38.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 36.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 38.0N 31.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 46.0N 21.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
