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| #545205 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 23.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012 DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM AND IT IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS TC INTENSITY CONSENSUS...SATCON...WHICH IS A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INFLUENCING THE CIRCULATION. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SOON BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 200 MB TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD IN A DAY OR SO...WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOW THE SHEAR DIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY IN 36-48 HOURS. THUS...ASSUMING THAT NADINE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. NADINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 290/3. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 31.0N 26.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 31.4N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.6N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 31.6N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 31.3N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.5N 32.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 31.0N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 33.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
