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| #546171 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 28.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012 NADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES HAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH. NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. NADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT NADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT INCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION. THE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL SOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 29.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 29.6N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 31.1N 35.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 32.9N 36.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 35.0N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 36.4N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 36.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 37.0N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
