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| #54644 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 29.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS PRESENT. THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. BETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4. AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN BETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING. WITH THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE GFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. BETA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.8N 82.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.9N 83.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.0N 84.1W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 85.3W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.2N 86.4W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 88.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
