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| #546630 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 29.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012 THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN MICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. NADINE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH LOW SHEAR BUT A RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN. AFTER THAT...NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY...NADINE WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SOON. ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTHWEST OF NADINE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRAP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE DEEPENING TROUGH. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW THE TRACK MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INSIST ON LOOPING NADINE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 35.6N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 36.8N 38.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 37.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 36.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 35.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 35.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 36.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 41.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
