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| #546732 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 30.Sep.2012) TCDAT4 HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 72 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012 THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME A LITTLE SMALLER AND BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...AND A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE NADINE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MOVE VERY FAR...THERE COULD BE SOME UPWELLING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ALREADY MARGINAL SSTS TO COOL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO COOL WHICH COULD OFFSET THE COOLER WATER. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND NADINE IS PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY LATER TODAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN. NADINE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HOURS...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF CANADA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TO WHETHER NADINE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC OR TURNS WESTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY THE UPPER-LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 37.1N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 37.3N 39.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 36.6N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 35.9N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 35.6N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 36.3N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 40.8N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
