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| #54713 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 30.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 THE EYE BECAME MORE CLEARLY DEFINED IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AND AT 06Z WAS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THE EYE IS SO SMALL... HOWEVER... THAT SSMI IMAGERY FROM A 29/0156Z OVERPASS BARELY RESOLVED IT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES AT 06Z INCREASED TO T5.5/102 KT. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT... BUT THE EYE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE. THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE INTENSITY WAS NOT 100 KT AT 06Z... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET TO 100 KT SINCE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT YET HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY RECENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION. BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON... ALTHOUGH GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IT COULD WEAKEN AND REACH THE COASTLINE OF NICARAGUA AS A CATEGORY TWO. THIS SMALL HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 7 KT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT... AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY REASON WHY BETA WILL SLOW DOWN SOON... SO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA IS IMMINENT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING THE CENTER OF BETA ACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN FORECAST AT LEAST A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SINCE BETA IS SUCH A SMALL HURRICANE AND THE TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA SO RUGGED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND FOR THE REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IT IS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER... THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF BETA IN A FEW DAYS COULD AT SOME POINT LEAD TO REGENERATION IN THE PACIFIC. BETA WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... LIKELY LEADING TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WHICH COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE. THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CONTINUE WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL... EVEN AFTER THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BETA WEAKEN. SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA COULD BE DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 13.0N 83.4W 100 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 12.7N 84.3W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0600Z 12.5N 85.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 31/1800Z 12.4N 86.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED |
