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| #547130 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 01.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012 THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION... WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE FEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL CONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE 34-KT WIND REPORTS FROM SHIP VRBU6...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 01/2210Z SSMIS-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS CO-LOCATED IN THAT SAME AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/05 KT. NOMADIC NADINE HAS FINALLY MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES...THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER SYSTEM ON DAY 5. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS FOUND A SWEET SPOT OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED BENEATH THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS SHELTERING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND EXPOSES NADINE TO HOSTILE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C... WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING ABOUT THE PERMANENT DEMISE OF THIS RESILIENT AND LONG-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 34.7N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 34.2N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 34.2N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 34.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 36.7N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES 72H 05/0000Z 44.0N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/0000Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
