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| #547545 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Oct.2012) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 85 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012 500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012 NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
