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| #547666 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 04.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.7N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 24.9N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
