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| #547872 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 04.Oct.2012) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012 1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012 OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING. THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT. DESPITE OSCAR MOVING FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT. THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.0N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
