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| #549301 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 11.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW- LEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01. AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 25.4N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 25.1N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 24.9N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
