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| #549537 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 12.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A BLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY... AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS. PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN 36H. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 25.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
