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| #549606 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 12.Oct.2012) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER. PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 25.5N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.0N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 24.2N 74.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
